Tuesday 11 November 2014
Be Ready to Beat the Best: FreeFall Of Oil Prices
Be Ready to Beat the Best: FreeFall Of Oil Prices: Most Spoken/Written words in Pink Newspapers for the last one or two months are Freefall of OIL PRICES. Oil prices have been fallen ...
FreeFall Of Oil Prices
Most Spoken/Written words in Pink Newspapers for the last one or two months are Freefall of OIL PRICES. Oil prices have been fallen more than 25% in tha last four months are so, lowest ever since June 2012. It was $150 per barrel in 2008 and now it is $85 per barrel.It could affect Global as well as Indian Economy in many ways. Here I would like to mention the facorts which could affect the oil prices.
The first and foremost thing is OPEC, it is a consortium of 13 countries, is the single largets entity impacting the world's oil supplies. OPEC countries contribution to the world production is 40% and the remaining is from non-OPEC countries. Even though they have less than 50% of production share, they are able to control the oil prices backed by reserves. OPEC contries have lot of reserves compare non-OPEC coutries. Supply and Demand is the next factor which would affect the oil prices, it follows law of demand-cetiras paribus. Next and most contemparory factor is political unrest, Mostly of the oil producing countries' revenue comes from exporting oil only and the oil producing companies are mostly run by respective goverments only. So whenever there is a political unrest, production will get affected as we are seeing in the case of Iraq and Iran. Many countries will have their own tax margin on exports which will also affect the oil prices, quotas in exports also depends on the agreements among the countries. Financial markets also will affect the price changes. In financial markets, Traders and Speculators are the main influencers of oil prices. Traders will not affect the oil prices as much as done by Speculators. Speculators will enter into FUTURES contracts by speculating the prices, if there is an homogenious expectation among speculators, then there will be a bad affect on oil prices. It's like moving all the people in the boat to one side, which would tips over the boat. Natural calamities also will affect the price changes, when there are advers condition for production, then supply will be less which will lead to rise in the oil prices. Seasons like winter will have more demand compare to summer. USD value also will affect the oil prices. Oil prices will be denominated in USD across the globe, so whenever there is a change in the dollar value it will affect the oil prices also. Appreciation will decrease the demand and vice-versa.
Now we will see what all are the factors which are affected for freefall in oil prices. First one is the U.S shale boom, which is one kind of extraction of oil. The U.S domestic production of oil has been increased due to shale boom. The U.S is the largest importer of oil in the world, now their demand has come down to nearly half due to domestic production. The below chart will provide you the history of both oil production and oil Imports of the U.S.
Their production has reached peak in 2014 in the last 25 years and imports have touched the lowest in the last 20 years. The U.S will be going to produce more than Suadi and Russia by 2016. Production in the most OPEC countries will reach at full as their political and internal issues looks to settle down like Iran nuclear issue, Libya's country revolution and so.
OPEC's limited ability to boost prices by cutting production. Most of the OPEC countries are having huge fiscal deficit and under currency stress. These countries revenue is mostly from exports, so these countries accepting the market determined rate. Demand for the oil across the globe has decreased, especially China and Europe. China's economy has slowdown and manufacturing sector has pilled-up inventory which is not letting them for the further production. Manufacturing sector in China is the major consumer of oil imports.
The above chart will give us the clear picture about demand pattern across OPEC and non-OPEC nations.
USD will also affect the oil prices, since USD has been strong the oil prices have been affected.
To conclude this, We will see the affect on Indian Economy. I would say Mr. Modi took over the supreme chair, everything is going in his favour. Indian economy's main problems are fiscal and current account defisits. Oil imports are contributing around 45% of total imports and 85% of total oil consumption in the country. Now we can say how much it will affect the current account. India Govt's one third subsidy is going to oil imports only, when there is a freefall in the prices it would directly affect the economy in three folds. Govt will left will money which would directly invest in public infrastructure. The govt target of 4.1% of fiscal defisit is now achievable. Inflation also will be decreased as oil prices have 8.9% of share in the WPI. By taking all these factors into consideration, Indian economy will have more chances to revive soon.
As a final point, Since the supply has been increased in the world and demand has been decreased as a whole, Oil prices have been decreasing. To see it from the long-term perspective it may not be the case, Geopolitical risks like war between Russian and Ukraine, Middleeast unrest, Inflation risks and The U.S QE3 will halt the freefall.
charts taken from Bloomberg website.
Saturday 12 July 2014
Not an aggressive one but some innovative and creative
Finally the Modi budget has arrived, which had lot of expectations from common man to industries, it is not the best one but I would say this would give lot of thoughts and creative work which has been done by Modi and his team. Budget 2014 is neigher having any aggressive reforms to push forward the growth nor aggressive cuts in subsidies to decrease the expenditure. The good things about this budget is again having Modi mark of improving efficiency and transferency in the system. I would really appreciate the innovative thought of 100 Cr club plans/projects. It would really make sure to reach maximum benefits to poor, because it doesnt have so much of amount, where lot of corruption happend a minimum amount of 100Cr, and the projects which are coming under 100Cr are easily understandable by common-man whether corruption is going on or not, such as metro project, riverside developments. Now anybody can access to the information about any government schemes or projects fund flow, thanks to the UPA for RTI act and to the YUVARAJ for insisting and telling the nation that RTI is such an important tool which can be used by common people to question the public representatives in any law of court, infact they can show their opinion on the representative, as showed in recent election by the whole nation.
Now we will look as some of the smart things that have done by Modi and his team in this budget.
First we should appreciate his thought of building 100 smart cities. Yes, it is a big innovative and thoughtful idea. Every year India producing more than 10 lakhs engineers, more than 50 thousand doctors and lot of graduates. Who will accomidates them, Bangalore or Delhi or Mumbai or Chennai, infact all the cities put together can't and it will make the graduates life more miserable. when everybody is earning obviously demand for the limited items will soar. Suppose we will take rent for a 1000-1500 sqft house in any metro, it would be in the range of Rs 8,000-15,000. The present Indian economic condition can't offer that much of freedom for the employeed. Infact limited number of cities are one of the reasons for inflation, Yes what i'm telling is true. Number of people living in cities having increased around 12% in 2001 to 29% in 2011, more than doubled. Competetion for the limited items from cities has been increased because everyone has money and everyone wants same item infact basic items, which are consumed by everyone irrespective of income. Bad infrastructure also contributing to it as transporting costs includes fuels and storage costs. The 100 cities concept will obviously help India in accomadating the nextgeneration and technology will also contribute in fast developing of cities and interconnecting the people. As far as economic activities concers and for the present conditions, it would help infrastructure industry, cement industry, auto mobile industry, banking industry primarily and lot of other industries which will be benefited by it are like retail food chains, commodities.
Now we will come to Skill India program, I dont know how far they can take it to the targeted group. They were lot of progammes by UPA too like JKC. As far as my opinion concern I would say it will be implemented better than UPA and will be effectively utilised by target people. As Our PM told how many degrees you have is nothing but how you apply the knowledge u gained in that degrees practically. This would be a small thing to see one the paper or to hear but it will have lot of impact on the total economy provided that it will be reached to the target group and properly utilised by the group. The next big thing in this budget promised by Modi and his team is 24*7 power supply to the households. To fulfill the given promise, the Govt is depending on the renewable energy sources, mostly on solar and wind. He already showed his intension towards power suuply to the households in his state. Most talked disinvestment by UPA and now NDA, I would say it is the right time for disinvestment, markets are at life time high. Govt should focus on developing the assets as well. Actually as far as present economic status, disinvestment is one of the options left with the Govt. to reduce the fisical deficit and it is the right time to so also.
Modi's brand team again done their job perfectly with two things. First one is Satue of Unity, which has been promoted by Modi before elections itself and will come one of the symbol of India in the future where they score more and where UPA or Yuvaraj never thought of it. They have allocated 200 Cr for this project. Second one is cleaning of river Ganga, it's absolute advantage for BJP and Modi and nobody else can score here. Here we have nothing to talk about subsidies and infact Modi is going to put maximum efforts to take out all the subsidies and Govt should change the subsidies to different sectors like sunrising sectors and technology not like traditional fuel, farm and all. It will mostly depends upon the use of and fast development of renewable energy sources.
Other than this there are some populist reforms like Tax limit increase from Rs.2 to 2.5Lakhs, 80C limit increase PPF and Housing loan rebates. These all will make the individual leave with more money in thier hands, which will obviously make economic activity to run and in this situation its more important too. And next thing is taking out infrastructure project loans for CRR/SLR of banks. As usual deficit target of 4.1% which may not be possible for current year and for near term but hope for the best. New IIMs, IITs and AIIMs but nothing great has given for education sector and health sector too.
Over all the budget has Modi effect on it and will definetly give the pathway to the Govt, I would say this is the good starting point for the Modi Govt and to the economy to revive and mansoon may affect the flow.
Now we will look as some of the smart things that have done by Modi and his team in this budget.
First we should appreciate his thought of building 100 smart cities. Yes, it is a big innovative and thoughtful idea. Every year India producing more than 10 lakhs engineers, more than 50 thousand doctors and lot of graduates. Who will accomidates them, Bangalore or Delhi or Mumbai or Chennai, infact all the cities put together can't and it will make the graduates life more miserable. when everybody is earning obviously demand for the limited items will soar. Suppose we will take rent for a 1000-1500 sqft house in any metro, it would be in the range of Rs 8,000-15,000. The present Indian economic condition can't offer that much of freedom for the employeed. Infact limited number of cities are one of the reasons for inflation, Yes what i'm telling is true. Number of people living in cities having increased around 12% in 2001 to 29% in 2011, more than doubled. Competetion for the limited items from cities has been increased because everyone has money and everyone wants same item infact basic items, which are consumed by everyone irrespective of income. Bad infrastructure also contributing to it as transporting costs includes fuels and storage costs. The 100 cities concept will obviously help India in accomadating the nextgeneration and technology will also contribute in fast developing of cities and interconnecting the people. As far as economic activities concers and for the present conditions, it would help infrastructure industry, cement industry, auto mobile industry, banking industry primarily and lot of other industries which will be benefited by it are like retail food chains, commodities.
Now we will come to Skill India program, I dont know how far they can take it to the targeted group. They were lot of progammes by UPA too like JKC. As far as my opinion concern I would say it will be implemented better than UPA and will be effectively utilised by target people. As Our PM told how many degrees you have is nothing but how you apply the knowledge u gained in that degrees practically. This would be a small thing to see one the paper or to hear but it will have lot of impact on the total economy provided that it will be reached to the target group and properly utilised by the group. The next big thing in this budget promised by Modi and his team is 24*7 power supply to the households. To fulfill the given promise, the Govt is depending on the renewable energy sources, mostly on solar and wind. He already showed his intension towards power suuply to the households in his state. Most talked disinvestment by UPA and now NDA, I would say it is the right time for disinvestment, markets are at life time high. Govt should focus on developing the assets as well. Actually as far as present economic status, disinvestment is one of the options left with the Govt. to reduce the fisical deficit and it is the right time to so also.
Modi's brand team again done their job perfectly with two things. First one is Satue of Unity, which has been promoted by Modi before elections itself and will come one of the symbol of India in the future where they score more and where UPA or Yuvaraj never thought of it. They have allocated 200 Cr for this project. Second one is cleaning of river Ganga, it's absolute advantage for BJP and Modi and nobody else can score here. Here we have nothing to talk about subsidies and infact Modi is going to put maximum efforts to take out all the subsidies and Govt should change the subsidies to different sectors like sunrising sectors and technology not like traditional fuel, farm and all. It will mostly depends upon the use of and fast development of renewable energy sources.
Other than this there are some populist reforms like Tax limit increase from Rs.2 to 2.5Lakhs, 80C limit increase PPF and Housing loan rebates. These all will make the individual leave with more money in thier hands, which will obviously make economic activity to run and in this situation its more important too. And next thing is taking out infrastructure project loans for CRR/SLR of banks. As usual deficit target of 4.1% which may not be possible for current year and for near term but hope for the best. New IIMs, IITs and AIIMs but nothing great has given for education sector and health sector too.
Over all the budget has Modi effect on it and will definetly give the pathway to the Govt, I would say this is the good starting point for the Modi Govt and to the economy to revive and mansoon may affect the flow.
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